Thursday, December 06, 2007

Future of television (2)

At the Immovator Crossmedia Café on the Future of TV, ABN AMRO speculated about the future by making scenarios. In a report of August 2007 it produced a quadrant with four scenarios: digital disillusion, chronic chaos, crossmedia consolidation and complete fragmentation. Essential in these scenarios are Digital Rights Management (DRM), Security and privacy issues and the Wimax licenses auction.

The digital disillusion is characterised by a low degree of adoption of digital media and a low market dynamic. The dreams of the digital future have burst and the digital disillusion is a fact. In this phase online media and mobile will grow in a limited way.

In Scenario 2 of chronic chaos, there is a low degree of adoption of digital media. Yet there is a lot of market dynamics with many initiatives by innovative companies striving after the Holy Grail. The players have not found it yet, but are convinced to find it and keep going after it. The market is dynamic with competing offers. Yet the consumer is confused and takes on a waiting attitude. Only some niche markets are profitable.

In the scenarios 1 and 2 the consumer does not accept digital media due to mistrust and information overload. In the scenario of crossmedia consolidation, the consumer adopts digital media. Yet, this does not yield high market dynamics, as consolidation sets in. Only a few players will dominate the market, which results in transparency of the offered services. This will lead to mixed models, where by the consumer pays a premium rate and the advertiser takes care of the funding.

In Scenario 4 the market dynamics are high as well as the adoption of digital media. Complete fragmentation however is the result as the media sector is the sum of the many niche markets. Long tail would be a proper indication of this phenomenon. A dream world for the digital tifosi. The superfluence of bits and bytes are eagerly absorbed by the consumer, who is always in control. The digital media will surpass the traditional media.

These four scenarios possibly are the framework in which the media will develop in the coming years till 2015, except for unforeseen events. The ABN AMRO Bank draws the conclusion that crossmedia consolidation will win. In digital disillusion, the consumer wants to be entertained; in chronic chaos the consumer is confused about the technology and digital media offer. The phase of complete fragmentation has not arrived yet. So crossmedia consolidation is left open as an option. In this phase companies will have to listen to the wishes of the consumers and translate the wishes into proper products and services.

However the digital media sector now heads into the direction of chronic chaos. Digital media companies and crossmedia acquisitions by large companies are on the increase. They do not want to miss the boat or just want to monopolise the traffic. But the consumer will call for transparency before it invests in hard-, soft- and netware as well as services. According to the bank in 2015 there will be crossmedia consolidation with a few big players.

Blog Posting Numbers: 942

Tags: ,

No comments: