a. dramatic slowdown in Dutch FTTH in 2010;
b. Household penetration forecast to reach 14% by 2015
The Dutch telecom research organisation Telecompaper has published its fifth annual report on the Dutch FTTH market. A host of new players has entered the market, and FTTH initiatives are underway in no fewer than 205 municipalities, almost half of the nation's 418. However, roll-out is going slower than some may hope. Adverse weather conditions (a lengthy frost period) hit the overall market, and Reggefiber's roll-out in Amsterdam also saw a dramatic slowdown. Connecting homes in metropolitan areas has proven challenging. Competitive factors have held back FTTH as well, such as the nationwide availability of Docsis 3.0 (offering speeds up to 120 Mbps), the absence of well-known brand names on FTTH (such as Tele2 and Online), and^ KPN's focus on shareholder remuneration. The latter forced Reggefiber to raise outside debt from an EIB-led consortium in a much delayed process which took almost a full year.
The Telecompaper report distinguishes between fibre-to-the-home and fibre-to-the-building (FTTB, also called Ethernet-to-the-home). By year-end 2010, we estimate the number of homes passed with FTTH or FTTB at 714,600. This compares to a combined 541,600 homes passed at the end of 2009.
Telecompaper expects the roll-out of FTTH to accelerate over the next few years. By the end of 2015, these two technologies combined stand to reach almost 2.5 million homes passed and over 1 million subscribers. The report also provides estimates on the market shares of the service providers in the Reggefiber ecosystem. The OnsNet cooperatives in Noord-Brabant lead the market with a combined 41 percent share.
For the fifth annual FTTH report, Telecompaper interviewed 17 market participants. The report describes the current state of the market and market dynamics evident in 2010, and provides estimates for the period through 2015. Many of the new and existing players are brought under the spotlight. Buyers of the report receive free access to our Broadband NL 2011 conference on 12 October, as well as a free copy of last year's report. Telecompaper is also preparing a national database of FTTH projects down to the city and borough level, to which access can be acquired on a subscription basis.
Please watch this space. I will have a comment on the slowdown tomorrow!