BPN 1582 Closing my Hyves account

Today I closed my Dutch Hyves social network account. And today Vinton Cerf warns for walled gardens in the Guardian.

In 2007,  I had a long discussion with Xenia Maren Menzies (hi Xenia, do you remember) about the durability of FB. I told her to have an exit strategy in case FB would go bankrupt or in case you had enough of it or, in the worst case, you would die. Who would close the account, was the question. And now social networks are working on their own way to extinction. And that strategy is called: walled garden.

The term walled garden was often used in connection with AOL around 2000. AOL had started out as a consumer online organisation and had survived consumer services like The Source, Trintex and Delphi. By 2000 AOL had a strategy of keeping consumers in their garden. So they started to cooperate with all kind of news and game companies with the slogan: we are your one-stop shop. The social networks go into the same direction now. BUT I DO NOT WANT A ONE WAY SHOP.

So start reading the Guardian article Google evangelist warns Facebook could be the next AOL or IBM. The Google evangelist is Vinton Cerf who says Facebook's closed model risks it becoming a 'walled garden' unconnected from other networks and websites. On my FB page this link was offered by Professor Melissa Lee Price and also linked by Gyorgyi Retfalvi.

The article appears on the day that I have closed my Hyves social media page. Hyves is a Dutch social network, which is presently belonging to De Telegraaf. This newspaper publishing company bought the social network, when it was really over its commercial top. And presently it is panting and trying to catch up with other networks. Today Hyves launched a major overhaul, which prompted me to look at Hyves in general and to the persons profiles I link to. Then I compared the two networks and the list of profiles and noticed that I could find the profiles also on FB. So what was the extra on Hyves: a walled garden of a newspaper company? I decided that it was time to close my Hyves account and I did. I must compliment Hyves on this clean closing-off procedure.

BPN 1582

BPN 1209 When will Blu-ray be over

It is interesting to hear how the consumer electronics manufacturers are looking for the next golden egg in the compact disc technology. At the consumer electronics fair IFA in Berlin the manufacturers are sending out messages. Sony and Philips tell the consumer that Blu-ray will be a mass product in two years time, while Panasonic says that DVD will be terminated soon. And the loser of the race for the successor to DVD, Toshiba, is still selling a High Definition booster to the DVD. In short, the DVD generation is nearing the end of its commercial DVD lifecycle.

It is almost 15 years ago that Philips boss Jaap Timmer, supported by IBM, banged the heads of the rivals and told them to set a common standard. Toshiba gave in and the DVD could get a fast start. After 10 years there was a new round for specifications of the next generation of DVDs, which was going to include more volume, but especially High Definition. This time Toshiba, NEC, Matsusishu and Microsoft did not give in and started to develop their own next generation DVD format. But they had to give up as sales were not impressive and the movie world held back. In the end Sony won the race with Blu-ray.

So now Philips has become a Blu-ray missionary, as many of its patents have been brought into the technical specification and says that Blue-ray will be a mass product within two years. It gambles that the film fans will start playing their DVD collection on the Blu-ray player and eventually will buy the Blu-ray version of the movie. After that wave the masses will follow. Sony on the other hand serves already the market of game consoles with Blu-ray and of course will also sell Blu-ray players to the movie loving audience. In fact Sony will have the Blu-ray version of the new James Bond movie Quantum of Solace.

Will the Blu-ray really be a mass product in two years? The introduction of CD-ROM from the lab to the commercial market took three years and it was a success almost five years later. The introduction of the DVD from the lab to the commercial market took also three years and it was a success almost four years later. The Blu-Ray came on the market in 2005 and did not make much impact so far. Now after three years it looks like it will pick up. The movie industry does not have to make a choice any longer and neither has the consumer. So the consumer gets more volume, a better picture and an online link BD Live.

But the customer follows the industry. Presently there are roughly 200 movies on Blu-ray. This will not be enough to convince people to buy a Blu-ray player. A portfolio of at least 750 movies is needed to get the traffic in the consumer electronics shops going. Whether that portfolio will be reached in two years time is debateable.

There are two factors influencing the acceptance of Blu-ray: the portfolio and the introduction of disruptive technology. Big movie firms release between the 450 and 600 new movies every year. So in numbers the portfolio can be put together; however not every movie will automatically be released on Blu-ray. My guess is that by 2012 the Blu-ray will sell as DVD is selling presently. And in the background of course lure the disruptive technology of broadband. How fast will Hollywood release movies in HD quality over broadband? I do not think that Blu-ray will be the last offline movie medium to be replaced by online. But once the speeds are up, the online distribution of movies might become more interesting. I guess that the games world is already predicting that trend.

Blog Posting Number: 1209

Tags: DVD, Blu-ray, broadband

BPN 1008 The flood of press releases on mobile stops today

Today the boys and girls of the mobile industry pack up and will leave Barcelona. They have a lot to think of. They got quite some messages for the next year to think about. I am not in the mobile business nor am I in Barcelona. I am just a mobile user with an interest in the development of mobile content. So I have been reading the stream of press releases. Most of them could be relegated to the dustbin immediately and were not even worth reading. And as I wrote before about the Readius, the mobile with flexible digital paper, of course the old tricks were played to lure the press; but the press can have a better memory these days due to search engines. (I recently spoke to someone who had seen and felt the Readius and was shocked to find out that you have to open the mobile when called. There is no interface and/or screen on the outside of the mobile to accept the call. This mobile will not win a usability award, was his final judgement).

The flood of press releases shows that the mobile industry will have to deal with saturation. This year there will be more mobiles in China than in the USA. Of course there are still markets which still have to pick up mobile telecom, but they are not the most interesting markets. And the profit margins on devices are under pressure; Nokia has to move its production from Germany to Romania.

After saturation, consolidation sets in. No longer the various models of mobile telephone (or handy as the Germans call the device) are important but the software will influence the acquisition. And the software is based on the operating system. Presently there are some 50 operating systems and new ones still pop up like Google's Android. But the most important ones for now dominate the market: Symbian, Microsoft Mobile, Opera. And the manufacturers are no longer strict in using operating systems. Even Symbian shareholder Sony-Ericsson has now used Microsoft Mobile in one of its new models. And they are desperately looking for infrastructure like search engines. Of course Microsoft hoped to catch two flies in one go with Yahoo. Once the search engine would be part of the conglomerate, it could also function as mobile search engine.

But the main manufacturers and operators are still dancing around the issue of content. The latest item in content is of course television. This will bring in the ship with gold; so they think. I am not a believer of that. Mobile television will fit in the snack culture: short, funny movies. I do not believe that you will watch television series. In my view this will be something for the Ultra Mobile PCs, which will flood the market by mid 2008.

But also in other content areas, manufactures are looking again. Nokia started to distribute content of games, music, navigation information and other information through its Ovi service. Local operators will be glad to pick up the connect minutes, but will not get any extra’s out of it. The operators have also looked for the content revenue extension. But the time of the walled garden services is over. Besides people pick what they want to have and not what the operators think that they should have.

One of the reasons mobile content has not been a success is the tariff of connect time. Just downloading a1Mb from the mobile net cost a fortune. Of course T-Telecom has brought down the price, but if you have to pay yourself, you will not connect to YouTube for the daily selection. And money is not the only handicap, but also the operating systems. The scaling/reformatting of internet screens does not really work, even not on smart phone screens.

There is an old wisdom in the PC world that you have to sell a PC for free and ask money for software. IBM forgot to do this, when it launched the PC in 1981 and Microsoft came in. In 2004 IBM had to sell its PC business to Lenovo. Nokia is trying to hold the fortress by launching the Ovi service. But will this service mature in time to deliver profits, when the profits on device manufacturing will start to tumble and local operators are back to their old game of ticks and bundles.

Blog Posting Number 1008

Tags: mobile, walled garden, smart phone, digital paper

Warner Bros. takes Blu-ray stand

The entertainment company Warner Bros. has decided to publish movies exclusively in the Blu-ray DVD format from June 1, 2008 onwards. This is a heavy blow for the Toshiba and Microsoft, who support the HD-DVD format.


Many signs point to the end play of this company power game between industrial camps. It is clear that consumers are not being impressed by technology specs, but want one format and a reasonably priced DVD player. It is the old video recorder lesson, when JVC won from Sony’s Betamax and Philips’ V2000 (they also happen to be technically superior to the JVC recorder).

In the development of the first DVD format a dichotomy was also showing between the CD inventors Sony/Philips and Toshiba. But pressured by IBM and some armwresling by Jan Timmer the companies produced one standard format. And again Toshiba split off when the high definition DVD had to be standardised. The main difference between the two formats is in the storage capability; the Blue-ray format can comprise 25GB on a single layer and HD-DVD can contain 15GB. Of course both camps hold several patents, which they like to use in their players.

Why does it look like an end-play? With Warner Bros. taking sides with Blu-ray all kind of rumours spring up and certainly during the Consumer Electronics Show, which is being held. Toshiba was supposed to hold a press conference at CES, but cancelled, feeding speculations. So, rumour has it that Apple will implement a Blu-ray DVD player in its new computer model. And to top it all even the movie company Paramount is said to return to the Blu-ray DVD club with Philips and Sony.

However the consumer is putting on pressure too. The consumer is not going to buy two high definition DVD recorders, except for the buffs. But presently the economic crisis is not contributing either to the sale of high definition DVD recorders. First the mortgage and then the luxury. With this tight budget – if one still has some room in the budget – people do not want to be confronted with a choice out of two and a lock-in by technology. Consumers look at the camp with the most movies and the most solid commitment; last April Toshiba sold its movie and DVD division. And movie companies look at the market place and ask themselves where they can sell most.

Also regional differences play a role in the DVD format battle. Blu-ray and HD-DVD are in direct battle on the US market and HD-DVD has an edge on Blu-Ray. The companies always introduce their devices at a later point in time in Asia and Europe. In Europe Blu-ray is ahead due to its implementation in Play Station 3; Microsoft delivers to the Xbox an optional HD-DVD player.

So the end-play has started. When will it be over? I guess that HD-DVD will be over and buried by the summer, certainly if more movie companies join Blu-ray and Microsoft starts implementing Blu-ray in its new edition of Xbox.

Blog Posting Number: 973

Tags: DVD format, HD-DVD, Blu-ray

Toshiba sells movie and dvd division

The Japanese consumer electronics company Toshiba sells its movie and dvd division to the advertisement bureau Hakuhodo. No financial details have been published.

Toshiba will withdraw from the entertainment industry and focus on the manufacturing of consumer electronics, chips and nuclear technology. Last year Toshiba already ended its co-operation with the British music company EMI.

Toshiba follows the example of Philips. In 1996 this company did a strategic study into the future of the company. The company decided to withdraw from the entertainment industry as it was impossible to develop content devices which need for example DRM. As a consequence Philips sold off its music company and it’s CD-I publishing company. In 1998 the Canadian company Seagram acquired Philips music division Polygram. CEO Boonstra decided in 1996 to sell off the CD-I publishing company Philips Media to Infogrames.

The news item of Toshiba’s sale of its movie and dvd division did not get much attention in the press, but I think that it will have implications, especially for the dvd world. Toshiba has been the leader of the HD-DVD consortium, a promoter of one of the two second-generation DVD technologies.

It was not the first time that Toshiba pushed for a different DVD standard. When in the late nineties the CD-ROM technology had matured and the necessity to store movies on a DVD came up, Philips and Sony formed a consortium of technology and movie companies, while Toshiba brought also a consortium of software and movie companies together. Sony had an audio and video division just as Toshiba had. As interested party in the movie industry Toshiba had direct interests in developing an own standard, saving its subsidiaries license money. When the fight came to a head in 1998 IBM stepped in and Philips CEO Jan Timmer played the mediator role. After some head banging, the companies worked together towards one common standard.

But with the development of the second generation DVDs, the same division showed up again. Philips and Sony developed Blu-Ray on the basis of their pallet of licenses. Toshiba reeled in Microsoft for the development of HD-DVD. Now the companies let the people choose; and they do not choose yet.

But with the sale of the movie and dvd division, the immediate interest of Toshiba in the HD-DVD technology might be over, as there is no longer a world to win with HD-DVD technology and content. It could mean that Toshiba might loose its appetite to push the HD-DVD. It would not surprise me if in a few years time HD-DVD is a passed station.

Blog Posting Number : 731

Tags: CD-ROM, DVD, Blu-Ray, HD-DVDCD-ROM, DVD, Blu-Ray, HD-DVD